Tuesday, December 11, 2018
Seahawks
After Seattle Seahawks' Monday Night Football win, they apparently have a 99% chance of making the playoffs. Which makes the local fans round here even more insufferable. Considering they started the season so badly, this can be considered something of a major surprise. Unfortunately, or fortunately depending on who you ask, they happen to be in the same division as the 11-2 LA Rams so they will only be a wildcard team at best and probably won't have any home games in the playoffs. I'm so sad for the local fans (sarcasm). I'm still conflicted about whether to support the LA Chargers or not, who happen to be a good team this year. Wouldn't it be ironic if they won it all whilst they were in LA, something they couldn't do in San Diego and even though nobody wants them in LA. I don't think I can ever forgive the ownership and the NFL for deserting San Diego.
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As much as I'm liking the unexpected position the Seahawks are in (deffo didn't see the win in Charlotte coming). I fail to see the validity in the 99% chance stat.
ReplyDeleteOK they've got the Cards at CityLink (which on paper they should win), but Chiefs at home & 49'ers away are no gimmees.
Back of fag packet calculations:-
Assuming Seahawks have a 20% chance of going 0-3 from here (erring on side of caution).
Assuming that going 8-8 with favourable tiebreakers has a 70% chance of making the play offs, so 30% chance of not being good enough.
30% of 20% is a 6.67 %
Heavy favourites to make it - yes
Only 1 (one)% chance of failure - No
SDR
I won't even try to understand how 99% was reached, but my source was fivethirtyeight.com. It looks like they used some kind of simulation model - but Cards and 49ers are the 2 worse teams in the leagues, so should win at least one of these if not both. And I think they hold the tiebreaker advantage over most of the other wildcard contenders.
ReplyDeleteBTW - after I pressed "publish" I realised my maths were "off"
Delete30% of 20% is 6% (not 6.67%)
You did well not to point that out